Evidence for the reversal of the relative age effect in European professional basketball


AKINCI Y., YAPAR A.

International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 2025 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus) identifier

Özet

The Relative Age Effect (RAE) refers to how the selection process based on birthdates can influence athletic success and development. This study investigates the RAE in European professional basketball, focusing on its effects on roster composition, player performance, and team efficiency. Data from 2,571 male players across the top 10 European leagues in the 2022/23 season were analysed. The analysis utilised chi-square tests to evaluate birth quartile distribution, ANOVA for assessing playing time and efficiency scores, and correlation analyses to explore the relationship between birth quartile distribution and team success in league level. The findings confirm the existence of RAE, revealing an over-representation of players born in the first quarter of the year. However, contrary to expectations, players born in the last quarter received more playing time and had higher efficiency scores, particularly in the Turkish and Italian leagues. Additionally, a weak negative correlation was found between team success and RAE, suggesting that teams with a higher proportion of first quarter-born players performed worse. The study highlights the limitations of age-based selection and calls for alternative talent identification methods that could be beneficial for long-term career outcomes in professional basketball.